If I wasn’t happily married, I’d ask Liz Gannes to marry me. The NewTeeVee reporter points to a Forrester report - the most bullish ever, by far - that US video ads will hit $7.1B by 2012. Obviously, this must be true. As we have done over the years, we’re updating our “video ad market tale of the tape accordingly:
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2009 - set in 2004: $657 million | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2009 - set in 2005: $1.5 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2010 - set in 2006: $2.3 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2010 - set in late 2006: $3 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2011 - set in late 2007: $4.3 billion | Source.
An estimate of the worldwide online video ad market for 2011 - set in 2007: $10 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2012 - set in 2007: $7.1 billion | Source.
Here’s the graph, so it must be true:
No comment. Actually, as bullish as that sounds, look at the historical, actual growth in search ads:
By the way, my crazy post that web ads will surpass TV ads by 2021 isn’t so crazy now, is it? Let’s admit that such projections are self-serving, notwithstanding that, if search ads will be over $16B by 2012 and web video ads will be over $7.1B by 2012, right there, you are at $23B… my projections done earlier this year put 2012 ad revenues online at $36B. So figure search + video = $23B, that means classifieds, display/banners, sponsorships need to weigh in at $14B to make the numbers hold up. And, if we’re right about 2012, can we be that far off for our 2021 projection?
Not so crazy, heh?
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